Part Four: When Energy Security Becomes a Weapon

How America’s diesel gamble exposes the inflationary cost of a less predictable trading system. The proposed…


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Sanctions, Oil and the Law of Unintended Consequences

Washington wants to squeeze Russia. It may also squeeze the global consumer - while accelerating the search for…


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Stablecoins: Safer than they were. More dangerous than ever.

Nearly a year after I questioned the illusion of stability behind digital dollars, regulation has arrived, reserves…


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Part Three: Australia Doesn’t Need a Lower Speed Limit. It Needs a Better Engine

The latest GDP figures do not describe an overheating economy. They describe an economy whose capacity to grow has…


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Part Two: The Inflation Central Banks Don’t Fight

When the price of food rises too quickly, we call it inflation. When electricity, insurance, education or restaurant…


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Part One: The RBA Is Fighting Today’s Inflation with Yesterday’s Playbook

Australia has an inflation problem. That much is clear. What is far less clear is whether the Reserve Bank is correctly…


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Has Listed Equity Alpha Disappeared Or Simply Migrated?

An article in IO&C this week referencing analysis from Justin Tay of JANA Investment Advisers discusses how the nature…


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The Next US Tail Risks Part II: How Today’s Macro Risks Have Played Out Before

Today’s fiscal risks are not unprecedented. History provides signals for navigating regime transition.


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Long Vol, Tail Risk, or Carry – Pick One.

There is no free insurance. If you want carry and calm, you cannot also expect convex crisis protection.


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Digital Dollars: Real Risks: The Stablecoin Illusion of Safety

Stablecoins are marketed as safe digital cash. Under stress, liquidity mismatch and opacity may expose deeper systemic…


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